Posts Tagged ‘IPTV’

New IPTV Global Forecast Released – 2010 to 2014

July 20th, 2010 1 Comment

I’m happy to announce that my latest report, the 2010 IPTV Global Forecast – 2010 to 2014, was released last week by MRG.  The report covers a forecast of global IPTV subscribers, as well as spending for six IPTV product categories in addition to total IPTV service revenue, and system revenue from 2010 to 2014.

MRG is forecasting that the  number of global IPTV subscribers will grow from 41.2 million at the end of 2010 to 101.7 million in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 25.3%.

This is the Spring/Summer edition and we will publish an update six months from now for the Fall/Winter 2010 with an updated forecast.  We strive to cover the IPTV market very closely because of all the activity going on, so we have been publishing twice a year for many years.

IPTV Subscriber Forecast - 2010 to 2014

In addition to subscriber forecasts, the report also has 5-year forecasts for the entire IPTV ecosystem, broken down by regions around the world.

This report reveals which region will have the most subscriber revenues by 2014, which specific service providers will lead the way, and also look at some recommendations and conclusions.

I’ll follow up in future posts and discuss some of these topics in more detail. If you have any questions, just comment on this post or send me an email.

Posted in IPTV, Research and Analysis Tags: , , , , ,

New Technologies for Set Top Boxes

July 19th, 2010 1 Comment
a 2.5 inch Solid state disk, E-disk from Bitmicro
Image via Wikipedia

As part of my role as an IPTV Analyst, I keep track of over 100 vendors that are part of the entire IPTV ecosystem. That includes lots of software and hardware equipment, like VOD servers, video head-ends, and middleware. One of the largest fields is set-top boxes.

Currently at MRG, we track over 25 worldwide suppliers of IPTV set-top boxes. There are many big name companies, but also smaller ones from countries like China, Turkey, France and the U.K.

Unlike U.S cable companies where Cisco and Motorola have a huge advantage, IPTV is still relatively open and does not have worldwide standards.  As a result, any company can release a STB with or without a hard drive.

Recently, I read the Pirelli Broadband was looking to sell its set-top box business. That’s not a surprise since STBs are now becoming a commodity. Pirelli is perhaps best known for its tires (and perhaps its calendars) but its broadband division supplies set-tops to a number of Service Providers, especially in Italy.

Here in the U.S., set-top boxes are subsidized by the cable, satellite and IPTV firms. But there’s still a retail market for products like Tivo, Roku, and soon, Google TV. In the U.K. and Italy, set-top boxes are sold at retail outlets, so consumers have a lot more choice when it comes to getting a new box.

In the last year or so, there have been lots of new technologies coming to IPTV set-tops. Here are some of the top new trends I’ve seen:

  • Solid State Hard Drives. The newest models are now coming with solid-state hard drives, rather than the traditional drives with moving parts. Moving to flash-based solid state drives means faster speeds, since hard drives are usually the slowest part of any computer. Using solid state storage increaseses the cost (at least initially), but the box can be smaller, and quieter. Traditional hard drives also have a high failure rate compared to flash memory.  Solid State Drives (SSDs) are still very new, so very few STB manufacturers are using them yet.
  • Hybrid Connections. Most IPTV boxes today come with more than 1 TV input. There’s an Ethernet port (naturally), but also coax for over-the-air signals or even for satellite.  These STBs are called hybrids because they can connect to a variety of different inputs, so that Service Providers can deliver over-the-air signals, satellite, and Internet video from one box.  Cable boxes, by contrast, usually just have 1 coax connection, and don’t have Ethernet connectivity.
  • Home Networking Connections. The landscape for home networking is still evolving. Sure, Wi-Fi is popular but new standards are still emerging for wired connections (including power lines, phone lines and coaxial cables). Today, the IEEE and ITU have passed similar but competing wireline home networking specifications. The IEEE has passed P1901 (based on the HomePlug AV specification), while the ITU passed its G.hn spec recently. STB vendors have held off carrying either of these technologies inside their boxes, because the two specs are not interoperable. And offering both would be cost prohibitive. So for now, it seems like Wi-Fi is the next logical step.
  • Built-in WiFi. Surprisingly, most IPTV set-tops don’t come with wireless connectivity. Manufacturers want to keep the price of boxes low, so they leave out components that most consumers find indispensable. That means that consumers have had to buy dongles for their boxes, to connect Wi-Fi adapters. It’s not a great solution, but it works. It also passes along the cost to the consumer. Newer set-tops are coming with built-in Wi-Fi. Airties, is one company that I can recall that comes with Wi-Fi.
  • Intel Processors. Set top box company Amino Communications showed off the first Intel-based box earlier this year. Why is that a big deal? It essentially means the box is like a netbook–it comes with more storage, more RAM and is faster than ordinary set-tops. The Intel chip (while more expensive than regular STB chips) allows processor intensive applications, like Adobe Flash. That means consumers will be able to watch Hulu on their TV sets. Clearly, Intel is looking to stay relevant with consumer electronics devices, like set-top boxes, and even mobile devices.

Bonus: This quick piece about how Solid-State Drives are much faster when it comes to boot-up and start times, but almost no PC manufacturers are using them yet.

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Posted in Google, Home Networking, IPTV, Interactive TV, Satellite, Set-Top Boxes Tags: , , , , , ,

The Road to Rio

June 30th, 2010 No Comments

Yesterday I arrived in Rio de Janeiro for the IPTV Americas show. It took about 18 hours to fly here (along with a stop over and a plane delay), so you have to really want to come here. I was joking earlier today that I should use Skype to give my presentation next year–if Skype is good enough for CNN and Oprah it should suffice for conference organizers.

Early evening view from my hotel room

Anyway, the first step to coming to Rio is getting a visa. It seems like Brazil is one of the few South American countries that requires a visa from U.S. citizens. No big deal, really, but there are a lot of hoops to go through before you know you actually receive a visa. You probably shouldn’t buy that plane ticket yet, in case you’re denied the visa. And you probably don’t want to book your hotel either. Plan ahead!

In order to get a visa, you need to hand over your passport to the Brazilian consulate, and also give them supporting documents so they know you’re not going to Brazil to work.

Upon entering the Brazilian consulates’ office, I was reminded of waiting at the local DMV office. The consulate was just a big waiting room (with the requisite uncomfortable chairs), and protective windows where you can interact with the employees.

Once you take a number from the machine, just sit and wait for your number to be called. If you’re like me and got a number by pressing the wrong button (Brazilian citizens vs. tourist visas), you have to wait an extra long time. You might even be asked to get a new number and start waiting from the beginning. (I insisted on not having to do that.) Oh, and before all this, you have to make an “appointment” on the Brazilian consulate’s web site, which means you just come in and get a number and wait like everyone else.

After your number is called, things go a lot smoother. Handing over my passport to a complete stranger was an odd experience. But after 5 business days, I was told to come back and get my passport with visa.

So far, I’ve managed to pick up two words in Portuguese: Hello and “thank you” (obrigado). But since I speak Spanish, I can actually understand Portuguese if someone speaks slow. I estimate my comprehension level is about 70%. Although I try to use my simple Portuguese, I find that I always start speaking in Spanish initially.

It seems people here are really friendly about the language, which is really nice. I just wish I could remember to stop saying “Gracias” and say “Obrigado” instead.

So here I am. Rio. IPTV Americas. More to come, later.

P.S. It is winter here.

P.P.S. It gets dark at about 5pm.

Posted in Photos, Travel Tags: , , , ,

Are the Walled Gardens Coming Down?

June 2nd, 2010 No Comments

IPTV is all about the walled garden approach. For the last five years or so, Telcos around the world have been building up their broadband networks in order to support advanced data, voice and video services.

With declining wireline/voice revenues, many telcos are realizing that adding video to their offerings makes great sense. Although it’s an expensive and time-consuming proposition, rife with few global standards and unknown ROI, telcos realized that they had to do something or they’d no longer have a business. Innovation and investment is what is saving the telcos.

IPTV was always about the walled garden–meaning keeping the broadband network manageable by only allowing broadcast TV and VOD services. And keeping out content that wasn’t authorized. Opening up the full Internet to consumers was seen as a risky move.

It is also unprecedented. I don’t know of any telco providers anywhere in the world that allows full Internet browsing via their IPTV networks. It was seen as a threat. Opening the doors to Internet video, like YouTube and Netflix on the TV was a threat to TV revenues being generated by Service Providers.

After all, won’t consumers just watch shows on YouTube? Won’t they forget about watching the broadcast version of a show and just watch highlights later on? Or save it on their DVR? Or even order a recent blockbuster through Netflix or Amazon, rather than using the cable or IPTV carrier’s VOD system?

But it looks like the genie is out of the bottle.

Consumers are consuming more and more video on their computers and phones. It’s almost second nature. Consumers also want to watch TV shows and movies on their own time–not just waiting for shows to appear on primetime every night at a certain time.

Now that the genie is out, consumers have taken the lead. Service Providers are finding that offering a variety of Over the Top (OTT) video services can be a crucial differentiator for them and something that consumers really want and value.

As a result, many Service Providers are opening up their walled gardens. The real question now is: how much of the walled garden do you open? Do you open the gates all the way? Or just open up certain sites? Or certain TV apps?

Perhaps the bigger question is, how do you earn more revenues from opening up the walled garden? Do you charge broadband subscribers more per month? Is there a premium offering that lets consumers watch unlimited Internet video? Will providers switch to tiered pricing and throttling, rather than unlimited data plans?

It seems like Broadband operators understand that they are getting to the point where they may be seen as a dumb pipe operator. But before that happens, I think they’ll fight tool and nail.

Posted in IPTV, TV Tags: , , , , ,

Newly Updated IPTV Market Leader Report

May 20th, 2010 1 Comment

Last month, I finished writing the bi-annual IPTV Market Leaders Report for Spring 2010. This report ranks all IPTV vendors in the space according to the number of deployed IPTV subscribers using their systems.

We started using this methodology 8 years ago in order to better understand the actual number of users for each vendor’s offerings. All in all, we track over 100 IPTV vendors and perform in-depth data collection and analysis in order to come up with our rankings. Not only do we gather data from vendors, but we also speak with IPTV Operators.

The Market Leader Report tracks 6 product categories: 1) Access, 2) Video Headend, 3) Video On Demand, 4) Set-Top Box, 5) Middleware and 6) Content Protection/DRM. These are the 6 fundamental product categories needed for a full IPTV deployment.

Below is the table that shows the Number 1 vendors in each product category:

Companies Ranked Number 1

As you can see, Microsoft leads in two categories (Middleware and VOD) and Motorola leads in two as well (Video Headends and Set-Top Boxes). Verimatrix, meanwhile, has been leading the content protection space for a number of years. Lastly, Alcatel-Lucent is leading in terms of providing access equipment for IPTV Operators.

(Note that this report only covers IPTV, not cable, satellite, hospitality or Internet video.)

Things change quickly so we will do another update in the Fall. Right now, I’m working on updating the bi-annual global forecast for IPTV to 2014. That should be released sometime around the end of the month.

Bonus: Here’s the press release.

Posted in IPTV, research Tags: , , , , ,

Video Monitoring Acquisitions Heat Up

May 18th, 2010 No Comments

Yesterday, Tektronix acquired Mixed Signals for an undisclosed sum. Mixed Signals is a company focusing on video quality measurement for TV, including cable and IPTV.

Tektronix has a number of different testing product lines, so adding a full solution for video monitoring is a good idea for them.

The importance of TV quality is becoming more apparent as HDTV grows in popularity. Consumers are more interested in getting the highest quality signal they can get. And pay-TV providers need to stay competitive now that Telcos are offering IPTV services.

In my research, I’ve found that improving video quality directly correlates to lower customer churn rates and lower overall costs for TV Operators. They need a competitive edge, and video quality is one sure-fire way to do it.

Oftentimes, providers use viewers to let them know of any image problems. However, video quality solutions monitoring all TV channels in real-time and can report problems before customers call in to complain. Essentially video monitoring helps pay TV operators be more pro-active rather than reactive.

Overall, the acquisition by Tektronix isn’t out of the blow. There has been some recent consolidation. In February 2010, Cheetah Technologies acquired the video monitoring business of Symmetricom.

And in October 2009, Ixia acquired the video monitoring business of Agilent Technologies for US$44 million in cash.

In my recent report on Video Monitoring, I said that vendor consolidation would be happening. First it will happen within the industry; then larger companies like Cisco, Motorola, and Microsoft will take notice and realize that yes, there is a business and opportunity for video monitoring.

My goal is to continue my research in video monitoring in the future. Let me know if there are any questions you need answered.

Posted in IPTV, TV Tags: , , , ,

What Google TV Should Be

May 18th, 2010 3 Comments

Google is reportedly ready to announce its “Google TV” strategy this week during their I/O 2010 event in San Francisco. I wish I could be there to ask some questions, but it seems like it’s made for developers primarily.

The most interesting things to glean from reports this week is that Google is working with Intel and Sony. What this means is that the solution will be built into the TV, I believe. Since they did not mention a set-top box vendor, it seems that they are first starting out with Connected TVs from Sony. Previous news reports indicated that Google might release a set-top box, but I’m guessing it’s more of a platform. They would have to partner with a set-top box vendor in order to make the box and help sell it in retail.

I guess Google TV is going after a few different distribution methods. At its core, Google TV will be about a platform for TV. Interactive TV. Or what they call Smart TV.  Google wouldn’t be in the space if it didn’t want to play in a big way. Other companies to look out for in the TV space include Apple and Microsoft.

Can Google deliver a next-generation TV platform?

First, Apple. Sure its Apple TV box hasn’t received great reviews, and has been relegated to a hobby, but don’t rule out Steve Jobs yet. After taking over the mobile market and redefining the tablet market, Apple has a lot to gain going after a TV platform strategy. Apple already has content deals with Hollywood. And who else sells more TV and movie content online than Apple? Surely not Amazon or Blockbuster. Apple already has iTunes and thousands of apps. It seems like just a matter of time before Apple goes all in on TV.

Next, is Microsoft. You may be wondering, what is their strategy with TV? Well, Microsoft has actually been involved with interactive TV for a long time. In fact, its Mediaroom IPTV solution is number 1 in the world based on number of active subscribers using the system.  Microsoft has created an interactive TV platform that is popular with users and IPTV Operators but tends to be more expensive than other IPTV solutions. Microsoft unveiled Mediaroom 2.0 with support for Over-the-top video in order to deliver TV to Xbox 360s, PCs and Windows smartphones.

Overall, I really have some high hopes for Google’s announcements tomorrow. Here’s my dream list:

  • Full Internet with Adobe Flash. It’s about time someone releases a set-top box with the full Internet experience. I think many vendors are scared to do so, because they don’t want to anger the broadband providers and content owners. But I think it’s inevitable. People want to watch Hulu on their TV screens. They want the same experience on the TV that they get on their computers. End of story.
  • Android Apps. Although full Internet is great, having third-party created apps is great. Imagine being able to use Android apps on your TV. Imagine being able to share apps and data across your mobile phone, PC and TV–seamlessly. I want Facebook, Twitter, Flicker and all my other favorite apps. In a perfect world, Apple’s iTunes service would also be included as a widget.
  • Smart, Intuitive User Interface. In order to be really useful, Google TV should be like Tivo. Google TV should be easy to use, and easy to browse content. Having hundreds of channels on regular TV is daunting enough. Now with the Internet on TV, and thousands of new viewing options, a new user interface is required.  That also include building more intuitive menus, better searching, and content recommendations. In addition, being able to control your Google TV with your smartphone or iPad would be great.
  • Other Movie Services. Google TV should embrace an open model for over-the-top (OTT) video. It should strive to get services like NetFlix, Blockbuster, Vudu and others into the service. Consumers are used to having lots of different options. I don’t think Google TV will be popular if it decides not to embrace a range of other movie services.
  • YouTube. Especially in HD. It’s a must-have, since Google owns YouTube. I think this will make YouTube a lot more mainstream, and legitimize it as a movie and TV rental solution for Hollywood.
  • Social TV. Aside from Twitter and Facebook apps, I would love it if Google TV helped TV become more social. I’d like to be able to share content or clips with my friends. Or at least share content within my household.

In sum, I want Google TV to be the perfect all-in-one solution for Internet video and movie services. It should an over the air tuner, hard drive, Wi-Fi and lots more. Can Google deliver?

Posted in Apple, Google, IPTV, Interactive TV, Internet video Tags: , , , , , ,

Broadband Definition in U.S. is Too Slow

February 18th, 2010 No Comments

I just read an article about the FCC’s new broadband competition map on GigaOm, where they say that it’s pretty much useless. I agree that the U.S. defines broadband as way too slow. According to old FCC rules, broadband is defined as under 200Kbps.

New rules say broadband is 768Kbps. Still pretty slow, and not enough to handle IPTV or even some HD Internet video sites.

Recently, Google announced that it was looking to supply 1Gbps broadband connections to communities that apply for assistance. This has spurred many to say that a) it’s too expensive and b) Google is trying to be a last mile provider.

I think if Google is trying to increase the bandwidth speeds in the U.S., it’s not a bad thing. Sure, current broadband providers might howl, but I think competition drives lower costs and faster speeds.

As I wrote last month, the U.S. has one of the slowest broadband speeds in the world.

The Broadband Stimulus program is trying to change this, but many programs have been focusing on under-served areas. Yes, there are some communities that will get higher speeds, but I think Fiber is the key to moving forward. Fiber really resonates with consumers, and provides Service Providers higher ARPUs and ROI.

Currently, only Verizon has gone full steam ahead on its Fiber strategy. AT&T is still using DSL, and doesn’t plan on switching to FTTX in the near-term.

The U.S. government needs to step up its commitment to providing super-fast last mile connections into the home, or be left behind by other countries.

Posted in Broadband, Google Tags: , , ,

Why IPTV? It’s About Interactivity

February 11th, 2010 1 Comment

I’ve already discussed what is IPTV last year, so I wanted to follow-up with a series of articles on Why IPTV?

In other words,  why should anyone care about IPTV? Speaking about the why’s of IPTV also means talking about the many benefits of IPTV over technologies like Cable and Satellite TV.

Essentially, IPTV enables much more interactivity than other TV delivery methods, because it uses IP-based technology. That means that IPTV is more web-like which means that it can use some of the same technology, software and equipment for Internet video delivery or streaming. Interactivity via IP is what makes IPTV special. Now, it should be noted that we are just in the beginning stages of interactive TV applications. Providers like AT&T and Verizon are using IPTV in very cool ways.

Twitter on FiOS TV

For example, Verizon allows users to use Twitter on their TV screen via FiOS TV. It’s not the full Twitter experience, but subscribers can tweet about what show they are watching, or read messages from friends while watching TV. This is the start of Social TV–the fusing of social media and TV. It’s going to be big.

In Portugal, local telecom company Sonaecom has Wikipedia on its IPTV service. It calls the service Clixopedia, named after its service called Clix TV. Accedo Broadband, a provider of interactive services like video games, was the vendor for Sonaecom.

And these are just the tip of the iceberg. Other telcos around the world have enabled things like interactive ads, TV shopping, multi-screens TV, video games, remote DVR programming, TV widgets, and lots more. Cable and satellite providers don’t have the infrastructure and back-channel IP support to handle these features easily.

But as a whole IPTV service providers aren’t using interactive elements to their full advantage.  Primarily, that’s because these telcos are spending lots of time and money to roll-out these TV services, and aren’t putting much attention to adding new interactive features–yet.  Larger providers, like AT&T and Verizon are leading the way, especially with the addition of Twitter and Facebook.

So far, IPTV brings with it the promise of the future of interactive TV. Cable technology, like DOCSIS 3.0, Tru2Way and EBIF have been slow to come to market and don’t bring the richness that IPTV allows. The future, it seems, is with IP.

Posted in IPTV, Interactive TV Tags: , , ,

Broadband Speeds Very Slow in U.S.

January 22nd, 2010 1 Comment

One of the biggest arguments that people have about watching TV over the Internet is bandwidth. Especially last mile connections. Everyone seems to think that there’s no way that we can watch HD programming over the Internet. “There’s too much buffering!” people say. Or they claim they can barely watch a YouTube video without pausing.

Well, these are arguments that worked about 10 years ago when I was working with streaming media. Today, AT&T and Verizon are delivering HD programming over a managed connection. AT&T is delivered over regular DSL lines. Verizon, of course, uses fiber, but they also are a hybrid service that still uses cable technology (QAM) to deliver live TV to subscribers. (Verizon’s VOD is IPTV based, however.)

Anyway, the reality is that last mile connections have improved dramatically since the early days. When I wrote my book on streaming media in 1998, there wasn’t much broadband at all. Dial-up was the norm. Think about it. 1998. That was pretty early. I understood the concerns then.

Today, consumers have a lot more bandwidth coming into the home. However, the U.S. is still very far behind other countries. An article from TeleCompetitor shows that the average broadband in the U.S. is 3.9 Mbps. The fastest average speed is from South Korea with 14.6 Mbps. (These numbers come from Akamai.)

Of course, Akamai only measures traffic over the open Internet. IPTV providers use closed, managed networks, so it’s hard to compare the two. Still, South Korea has a very high penetration of fiber broadband connections, which means they are ready for IPTV.

One live HD stream can be delivered in about 8 Mbps, while SD streams can be delivered in about 2 Mbps. I think MPEG-4 encoding can take it even lower, depending on encoding streams, so the last mile is critical.

The U.S. needs to catch up to the rest of the world when it comes to broadband speed. This news story from Ars Technica says that the U.S. ranks number 15 in the world for broadband speeds, and that was written in 2008. That’s too slow. Telcos and Cable providers need to work on improving this. Verizon is banking on its fiber deployments to carry it into the future. And cable companies are looking to DOCSIS 3.0 to carry broadband speeds faster.

However, fiber is still a long way off here in the U.S. Most consumers here get broadband via cable. But fiber really resonates with consumers. They understand what it means and what it can give them. But most consumers don’t even know how slow their broadband really is.

Posted in Administration Tags: , , ,
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